Description
Russia’s response to the hostilities that erupted between Armenia and Azerbaijan in autumn 2020 has reaffirmed the importance of conflict management in Russia’s regional policy. Existing analysis has questioned whether Russia is interested in a solution, or will exploit its leverage to ‘freeze’ the conflict through a limited cease-fire, with the aim of influencing the parties’ policies. This is often understood as a replay of a problematic legacy of interference and coercion that fundamentally departs from internationally recognised guidelines and practices, driven by the aim of restoring Moscow’s regional hegemony. This paper advances an alternative reading, arguing that the intent and character of Russia’s approach to the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh – and its regional legacy of conflict management – has been more ambiguous. First, Russia’s approach has been shaped by the tension between a range of drivers, including the facilitation of stability and the humanitarian process, and the promotion of Russian self-interest, particularly the securing of its voice in any future conflict settlement. Second, Russia’s response has developed in accordance with a much broader set of internationally recognised norms and practices than currently recognised. These assessments demonstrate Russia’s nuanced approach to Nagorno-Karabakh, and highlight continuity and change in Russia’s regional conflict management.
