Description
Kurds are as a community that majority of them are living under the four countries -Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey- and some of are in different countries around world. However, Kurds in Middle East have gone to deadlock after the fall of Ottoman Empire. Throughout twentieth century, political crises in Iraq encouraged Kurds; however, their strongest position came after First Gulf War.
This study will be undertaken in two main sections and six subsections. Two breaking points can be mentioned to explain the rise of the Kurdish geopolitics. These are the First Gulf War and The Iraq War of 2003. The first breaking point, First Gulf War, will be undertaken with the subsections of 1991-1998 and 1998-2003. The second breaking point, the Iraq War of 2003, will be undertaken with the subsections of 2003-2005, 2005-2010, 2010-2014 and 2014 to present.
The first subsection includes the years between 1991 and 1998. During this time, significantly important incidents occurred. First Gulf War and its consequences, expanding of Kurdish influence, not only increasing visibility of Kurdish parties but also their foreign relations with Turkey and Western countries, Turkey’s transborder counter-terrorism operations, and the Kurdish Civil War between KDP and PUK are the shaping factors of Kurdish geopolitics.
The second subsection includes the years between 1999 and 2003. Signing of Washington Agreement which led to a ceasefire between KDP and PUK, capturing of Abdullah Öcalan, September 11 Terrorist Attacks are the featured cases.
The third subsection includes the years between 2003 and 2005. In this regard, the process which began with the US intervention to Iraq, where Kurds gain the freedom of mobility in northern Iraq and KRG’s political and administrative development process will be evaluated. After the September 11 attacks, we witnessed a paradigm shift in US' Middle East policy. Therefore, US intervened in Iraq after announcing "the war on terror", claiming Iraq was part of the "axis of evil" thus helping the terrorist organizations and held weapons of mass destruction. After the successful invasion US started the process of state-building in Iraq with the main element of de-Ba'athification. Correspondingly Iraqi Kurds' legalized their de-facto administration with the newly adopted constitution's article 117.
The fourth subsection includes the years between 2005 and 2010. The Transitional National Assembly was established in January 2005. And by the April Jalal Talabani was selected as the president by the assembly. This has improved the Kurdish influence in the Iraqi politics with the Masoud Barzani sworn as the president of KRG. Parliamentary elections were conducted in December 2005. Democratic Patriotic Alliance of Kurdistan (DPAK) was the second largest party with a 22% vote. Besides the increasing Kurdish influence in Iraq, we've witnessed the increasing influence of Sunni extremes and Al-Qaida in Iraq. Especially after the Al-Askari Shrine bombing. Nevertheless, till the 2010, Prime Minister Maliki was supported by the Shia and Kurdish politicians.
The fifth subsection includes the years between 2010 and 2014. Iraq held its parliamentary yet again at March 2010. Maliki and Talabani were elected once again. However, Kurdistan Alliance's votes were fallen to 15%. This was partly due to Gorran Movement participating the elections with a separate list. Government forming process lasted 9 months. During the February 2011, PM Maliki and Erbil administration had conflicts over how to distribute the oil income. Despite the Baghdad's objection, KRG sold its oil and collected the income. During this period marginalization of Sunni Arabs continued. After the US pulled last brigades of its troops by the December 2011, the central government kept its pressure on the Sunni politicians. According to government's policies, an arrest warrant was issued for VP Tariq Al-Hashemi. Erbil was struck by bombing attacks, which were later claimed by the Islamic State of Iraq. During this time, DAESH established its control over some major cities like Mosul.
The sixth subsection includes the process from 2014 to present. Between 2003 and 2014 Iraq was fragmented by the religious and ethnic lines more than ever. Barzani claimed that this fragmentation was so unbendable that Kurds would conduct an independence referendum in 2014. However, during the last months of the same year, Haider Al-Abadi formed the new government with the incorporation of Sunni Arabs and Kurds. Nonetheless PM Abadi persuaded Kurds to stay within the country by reaching an agreement on how to share the oil income and joint struggle against DAESH. Since then Iraqi forces secured Tikrit, Ramadi, Fallujah, and Mosul from DAESH. After the help of Peshmerga in these decisive victories, Masoud Barzani brought up the desire of an independence referendum. The referendum was held on 25 September 2017 despite the internal pressure from Iraq and external pressure. Also, Kobane (Ayn Al-Arab) incident in Syria was another significant geopolitical fragmentation. During the crisis, Barzani’s decision to deploy Peshmerga in Kobane could be seen as strategic step. Because, after the deployment of Peshmerga, Kurdish geopolitics have been expanding over the region.
Since First Gulf War, Kurds have become a more visible actor at regional level. However, since rise of DAESH, they have become credible actor against DAESH at international level. Beyond crises mentioned, there are relations with among all these actors at diverse levels from energy to broad economic relations. Thus, any crises inside region does not allow cases to be securitized easily as countries’ desire. Interdependent relations bring crises to a whole new level where they cannot be solved.
In this study, process from First Gulf War to present, strengthening of Kurdish geopolitics and the future of Kurdish geopolitics will be analyzed as mentioned above categorization by applying to Regional Security Complex Theory, which has come into International Relations field during the post-Soviet era.
