Description
As the regional order in Asia-Pacific evolves amidst an intensifying US-China rivalry, security issues have risen to the forefront. The middle powers are also recalibrating their policies to deal with an increasingly complicated security environment characterized by a more aggressive China, accelerating great power competition, ongoing territorial disputes, weak regional multilateral organizations, and reconstruction of the region as the Indo-Pacific. The uncertainty about the emergent order and fears of instability are driving policies of regional stakeholders, as seen in the formation of the Quad and AUKUS.
Russia, which has been engaged in a process of diversifying its relations with the non-West, especially after the post-2014 breakdown of relations with the West, has re-emerged as a consequential power on various issues of international and regional concern. In its positioning as a major power in a polycentric world order, Russia has also turned its attention to Asia through its pivot to the East as well as the newer proposal of Greater Eurasia. It has seen its relations with China emerge as its most consequential bilateral relationship without becoming formal allies. Both the countries are critical of US policies in the region, and criticize Quad and AUKUS as a means to contain China through creating opposing blocs for preserving American primacy. Meanwhile, Moscow maintains neutrality on China’s territorial disputes and seeks to preserve its independent position in global affairs. In Asia-Pacific, this includes building relations with other regional powers like Vietnam and India, as well as ASEAN. Even though forward movement have been seen in Russia's engagement with the various sub-regions of Asia-Pacific – Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia and South Asia – its power projection capacities here remain limited at present. It is one among many players, several of which are embedded more deeply in the region’s political, economic and strategic calculus. Its limitations make Russian choices in this evolving Asia-Pacific security environment that much more complex.
This paper seeks to explore how amidst the above mentioned prevailing scenario Russia will position itself in the emerging regional security environment in the Asia-Pacific. This will be done through a detailed exploration of certain key questions which include the following: How is the Russia-China relationship expected to evolve, and how will it impact Moscow’s position in the ongoing US-China rivalry? What would be the impact of ongoing tensions with the West and the emergence of newer formats (Quad, AUKUS, Indo-Pacific) on its policies in the Asia-Pacific? How will Moscow define its strategic interests in the region, and how will it navigate its bilateral and multilateral relations with other states/organizations that are also in the process of recalibrating their respective policies?
