Description
In the mid-1990s, Nadia Arbatova called the Yugoslav conflicts a ‘horror mirror’ for Russia: ‘in bloodshed, destruction and in an atmosphere of hatred and mistrust Russia saw its own probable future and shivered with horror.’ Now that future has arrived. In this paper, I position the war in Ukraine in the longer-term perspective of the repercussions of the break-up of two communist multinational federations – the SFRY and the USSR – which raised questions about the borders, national identities and foreign policy orientations of the newly independent states as well as the role of outside powers in the respective regions. Those questions have not disappeared even in the Western Balkans where there has been relative peace for more than 20 years. I examine the current war in Ukraine through the lens of the Yugoslav conflicts in three sections. Firstly, I compare the situations and conflicts in the two regions, bringing out relevant similarities but also pertinent differences. Secondly, I examine the legacy of the Yugoslav conflicts and their implications for wider international relations with relevance for the war in Ukraine including: international norms on recognition, territorial integrity and humanitarian intervention; war crimes; and post-Cold War geopolitics in Europe. Thirdly, I look at how the Yugoslav conflicts contributed to the evolution of Russian foreign policy including in its own ‘near abroad’. I argue that this helps to explain but not to justify Putin’s war of aggression against Ukraine and some aspects of how it is being conducted.
