Description
Shifts in the balance of power are of profound importance in international politics, yet their causes are insufficiently understood. This article demonstrates that variation in economic globalization is a key driver of such shifts’ occurrence, as well as accounting for their size and speed, thereby filling a major explanatory gap. Expansions of three vectors integral to economic globalization—trade, financial flows, and technology/labor diffusion—enable follower economies to grow faster than leading economies. Such differential growth, in turn, enables less-developed followers’ levels of per-capita development and total economic output—which together underpin national material capabilities—to converge on those of leading economies, shifting the international balance of power. This process is elucidated empirically with reference to the impact of international economic flows on power balances in three illustrative cases: the arc of Dutch power after 1581, follower economies’ convergence on UK productivity levels over 1871-1914, and the divergent growth trajectories of the early and late Cold War. The article’s findings carry implications for realist theories that link power shifts to conflict, liberal theories that link economic interdependence to international stability, and analyses of the causes and potential consequences of the rise of non-Western great powers today.
