Description
This paper analyses the historical evolution of the nuclear relationship between Argentina and Brazil during the second half of the twentieth century (1946-1999). Ever since the beginning of their respective nuclear development programmes, the two Southern Cone powers have undergone a winding road alternating between open and secret rivalry, competition, coordination and cooperation on nuclear matters. Taking the model of Punctuated Equilibria (Baumgartner & Jones, 1993; True et al., 2007) as a departing theoretical framework, this work finds that the nuclear-centred relationship between these two countries undergoes a path of sustained rapprochement, going from an initial equilibrium of entrenched rivalry to a final equilibrium point of open cooperation and quasi-integration of their nuclear policies. Nonetheless, this rapprochement is not carried out gradually and steadily, but it is rather ignited by a set of critical junctures that serve to change the direction of the nuclear relationship scheme that was prevalent at the time. To identify and make sense of these critical junctures, this paper engages with archival and diplomatic sources from both countries, so as to appraise the conscious choice for cooperation and mutual trust made by Argentina and Brazil on such a delicate matter, and disentangle the Argentine-Brazilian long road to nuclear amity.
