Description
Historically, power transitions have been characterized by major power wars, made up of winners and losers in the international system. The current unipolar world order has avoided major power wars with nuclear deterrence, guided by US hegemony. Much discourse is placed on the future world order, in which the US is a weakening hegemonic power, prepared to cede its position to a rising, revisionist China. That said, how can a power transition be achieved if not through a major power war with nuclear weapons or violence leading to mere pyrrhic achievements? I argue that gray zone activities, as an analytic concept, offer the only realistic opportunity for a successful power transition in the current unipolar world order. Gray zone activities are strategic uses of revisionist powers' political, military, and economic capabilities to undermine more powerful, status-quo states, that do not warrant a military response. I use China as a single within-case study based on available research, open-source data, and official discourse to show that the gray zone concept can explain a modern power transition. In doing so, I establish a new structure for understanding revisionist state capabilities when faced with a status-quo defender with a preponderance of power.
