Description
On 30 September 2022, Burkina Faso experienced its second coup in one year, bringing to power a young captain named Ibrahim Traoré promising to address the insecurity crisis affecting the country. Four years earlier, two generals had been condemned in an unprecedented trial for their attempted coup during the 2015 democratic transition, raising hopes that military coups were – finally – a thing of the past in the country. It was not meant to be. On the contrary, whereas the 2015 coup attempted by the Presidential Guard had triggered an unprecedented popular resistance and a counter-offensive from the rest of the army, the 2022 coups saw most of the population remain indifferent – while some have welcomed them enthusiastically, putting in doubt the hopes of democratic consolidation brought about by the toppling of Blaise Compaoré in October 2014. How can we explain the renewed popularity of military coups in Burkina Faso? Based upon a review of media coverage and analysis of recent events, observations made during our extensive research in Burkina Faso over the past decade, and Afrobarometer data on Burkinabè citizens’ perceptions on governance and security issues, we explore three potential explanatory factors: the failure of the elected civilian government to effectively respond to the security crisis; popular disillusions with the post-Compaoré governance, and a ‘contagion effect’ from neighbouring countries, particularly Mali.
