Description
In the aftermath of Armenia's military defeat in 2020 and the recent events in Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023, the South Caucasus region has undergone a significant transformation in its ethnopolitical and geopolitical dynamics. These dynamics are closely intertwined with the evolving geopolitics pertaining to Russia’s ongoing conflict with Ukraine and the strategic rapprochement and collaborative efforts of Russia, Turkey, Iran, and Azerbaijan in regional integration within the post-Soviet Eurasian domain. This paper delves into the emergent patterns of non-Western regionalism in the South Caucasus, emphasizing the crucial roles of Russia, Turkey, Iran, and Azerbaijan. These actors, characterized by autocratic governance and illiberal political values, are central in redefining the regional order.
The paper aims to elucidate why these actors are collaboratively imposing non-Western norms and a West-excluding integrative regional agenda, particularly in the context of the proposed 3+3 format that includes Russia, Turkey, Iran, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia. It seeks to explain the motivations behind these like-minded, agenda-setting actors in minimizing Western involvement in regional order-shaping and norm imposition. Furthermore, the paper explores why these actors cooperatively aim to curtail the influence of a liberal democratic rules-based order on the evolving Eurasian regionalism in the South Caucasus, thereby asserting civilizational, ideational, and political-cultural incompatibilities.
Central to this inquiry are the International Relations (IR) concepts of hierarchy, authority, and order, which this study contextualizes by the phenomenon of non-Western Eurasian regionalism. The mechanisms of hierarchy are identified as core-periphery clientalist hierarchy, regional agency, and the contestation of hierarchical order between revisionist forces and regional hegemons (Hinnebusch, 2011). This study argues that in non-Western regional contexts, the nature and substance of hierarchy may be altered in the transition from non-cooperative to cooperative hegemony frameworks (Makarychev & Yatsyk, 2018). This nuance is observable in Russia’s system-shaping strategies towards the Caucasus before and after its Ukraine intervention. Furthermore, the study explores how functional needs, institutional restructuring, and the concurrence of norm imposition by regional rule-making actors underpin 'new regionalism,' particularly in non-Western interpretative contexts (Keating, 1997).
The research employs a qualitative case study methodology to address the non-Western integrative dynamics in the Caucasus as a region-level analysis, adapting theoretical tools to include non-Western interpretations of hierarchy, authority, and order. It critically examines the roles of authoritarian conflict management and non-Western integrative initiatives. This analysis contributes to a deeper understanding of the distinct characteristics and challenges posed by the rise of non-Western Eurasian regionalism in the South Caucasus, offering insights into the broader implications for international relations and regional studies in the context of currently emergent competitive multipolarity.
