Description
Many analyses of Russia’s 2022 offensive in Ukraine locate the causes for failure in the tactical ineptitude displayed by the Russian military, its operational dispersion across four mutually unsupported lines of attack, and the resistance of the Ukrainian state and military. These explanations overlook the Kremlin’s approaches to states it regards as clients, and the choice to accept a “color revolution,” sponsor a frozen conflict, support a beleaguered ally, or impose regime change. This paper argues that perceiving a position of strength relative to Ukraine and disregarding Western warnings, the Kremlin used a regime change model that had proven successful in the Soviet era. Comparative historical analysis places the 2022 offensive in the context of Soviet efforts to control regimes in Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and Afghanistan, and suggests that efforts to achieve a ceasefire may find the Kremlin responsive to solutions reminiscent of the Cold War.
