Description
The literature on anti/incumbency has conventionally considered the sources and trajectories of incumbents’ electoral dis/advantages, historically often focusing on significant developed democratic states. Later empirical work in diverse settings and with different electoral environments, has pointed to the contrast between the developed and developing countries, whereby incumbents in developed democracies often enjoy an advantage compared to the incumbency disadvantages that exist in developing countries. Causal explanations of this contrast hinge on incumbency advantages flowing from, for example, the ability of legislators to influence public policies and support distribution, and incumbency disadvantages, stemming from, for example, corruption. Within south Asia, India has been the most studied in this context, where anti-incumbency sentiments are exacerbated by underdevelopment and unfulfilled promises of public service delivery. There has hitherto been no examination of incumbency dis/advantages in Bhutan, and this paper is the first to study these dynamics in a consolidating democracy and a small land-linked Himalayan state that shares borders with India and Tibet/China. We analyse the case of Bhutan against the findings from the political science literature and assess the uniquely strong prevalence of anti-incumbency in the country. Since the democratisation of the country in 2008, no party has won the national general elections twice, with the volatile Bhutanese electorate having voted a new party into power in every election (DPT in 2008, PDP in 2013, DNT in 2018). Using the electoral data, targets in party manifestos, and corresponding policy achievements, we evaluate the applicability of a range of conventional factors (for example, public service delivery, corruption perceptions, economic growth, policy innovations). In explaining this phenomenon, we also introduce consideration of additional factors such as nature of transition to democracy, design of electoral mechanisms, citizens' understanding of democracy, small society effects, and the potential role of Bhutan's geopolitical location amid great power rivalry (Indian/Chinese). Through this in-depth examination, we offer an understanding of the complex interplay of historical, political, and socio-economic factors that have contributed to incumbency disadvantages in Bhutan so far, offering an insight into the future trajectory of democracy in this small state that will see its next general elections in 2024.
