Description
Extant literature on economic sanctions has predominantly focused on sanctions levied by Western countries. Policymakers and academics alike have dismissed sanctions by China, Russia, and other non-Western states as merely symbolic given their negligible economic impact on Western targets. In this paper I challenge the argument that Chinese sanctions against the West are merely symbolic. I argue that while Chinese sanctions may not have had a substantial economic impact on targeted individuals and organizations, they have caused a measurable change in rhetoric towards China. To test my theory, I make use of quantitative textual analysis techniques to find changes in the way that targets of Chinese sanctions associate words such as “cooperation” and “China.” I source my data from publications by the Mercator institute, a think tank which was targeted in March of 2021 and statements made by sanctioned MPs and Congress members. I use a difference in differences model with a synthetic control unit to estimate the causal effect of sanctions on the alignment of actors with China. I support my analysis with case studies. This paper contributes to the literature on sanctions effectiveness by providing a novel methodology and theoretical approach to assessing sanctions effectiveness.
