Description
In an era of pressing and complex conflict, International Studies faces new challenges in accessing the data needed to predict and track protracted war. We can look to new ways to study identity, especially as it relates to International Relations and peacekeeping. Traditional methods of studying identity present challenges in conflict zones; social media’s vast data offers a real-time alternative. Using the Russia-Ukraine war as a case study, and examining high-engagement posts from influential accounts across Russia and Ukraine, this research identifies trends in identity shifts through user interactions such as likes, shares, and comments. The project has four aims: tracking identity shift trends through social media, analyzing the impact of significant events on identity, understanding identity changes that prohibit peacebuilding, and applying this research to past and future conflicts. This research proposes a framework for tracking identity factors that signal protracted conflict, allowing earlier identification of protracted conflict, and improving peacebuilding strategies, imperative to advance our conflict-prediction methodologies. By combining social media analysis with established identity metrics, this research suggests a new approach to predicting protracted conflict, setting a foundation for predictive, robust, and responsive International Studies over the next fifty years.
