Description
With the outcome of the U.S. election pointing to a second Trump administration, concerns about NATO's future and the stability of transatlantic ties have intensified. Trump’s "America First" policy, often likened to a new "Trump Doctrine" or even a modern Monroe Doctrine, signals potential shifts in U.S. commitments abroad, raising urgent questions about alliance security. During his first term, Trump’s frequent threats to withdraw from NATO, coupled with his insistence on allies meeting the 2% GDP defense spending target, strained relations within the alliance. Trump’s demands for increased cost-sharing among allies foreshadowed his administration’s view of U.S. alliances as transactional rather than strategic. In the current landscape—with ongoing crises in Israel and Ukraine, as well as enduring tensions with Russia in Europe and China and North Korea in East Asia—these priorities could destabilize established security frameworks.
A second Trump administration may reinforce a multipolar world, where the U.S., traditionally seen as a stabilizing superpower, takes a step back. While Trump's stance is not fully isolationist, it emphasizes reduced U.S. involvement, which could harm U.S. credibility and weaken alliances built to counterbalance shared threats. This paper explores the future challenges for NATO under such a doctrine, analyzing the possible impacts on alliance cohesion and security.
In addition, this study draws relevant lessons for Taiwan and East Asian countries, particularly those that rely on U.S.-backed alliances to deter regional threats. As East Asia navigates shifting power dynamics, the implications of U.S. foreign policy under a renewed Trump administration carry significant weight, necessitating strategic considerations for Taiwan and other regional actors.
