Description
How does religion shape rebel group cohesion? A near consensus exists among scholars and policymakers around the belief that religion acts as a unifying force for insurgents. In this paper, I demonstrate that the opposite is true. My argument draws attention to the common practice of religious outbidding among rebel leaders. This tactic can exacerbate divisions between moderates and extremists and can lead to collective splits. To illustrate the plausibility of my argument, I offer two forms of evidence. First, I leverage the Foundations of Rebel Group Emergence (FORGE) dataset to analyze the extent to which armed groups that draw on religion splinter compared to their secular counterparts. My analysis illustrates that religious groups are nearly 25% more likely to split than their secular counterparts. Second, I provide a within-case analysis of rebel group fragmentation in the Southern Philippines to illustrate the religious outbidding mechanism. My argument and findings contribute to the study of both religious violence and civil wars more broadly. They draw attention to a potential risk faced by rebel leaders that mobilize along religious lines and have implications for how we understand a range of other conflict outcomes, including conflict lethality and termination. This study also links to this year’s conference theme by drawing attention to how international studies can continue to provide new insights that challenge widely held and highly influential conventional wisdoms.
