The threat of a US-China war from power transition is lower than often recognized – the East Asian region is also more stable than normally recognized. There are many reasons why a “power transition” war between the US and China is unlikely. In fact, internal challenges, not external threats, are what Chinese leader Xi Jinping is worried about. Similarly, the US should be more concerned with internal issues than China’s threat. We point out that East Asia historically has functioned very differently than did Europe; and even today the region has dynamics that are not leading to balancing or competitive behavior.
David C. Kang is Maria Crutcher Professor of International Relations at the University of Southern California, with appointments in the Department of Political Science and International Relations, East Asian Languages and Cultures and in the Marshall School of Business. Kang is also director of the USC Korean Studies Institute. Kang’s latest book is Beyond Power Transitions: the Lessons of East Asian History and the Future of US-China Relations, coauthored with Xinru Ma (Cambridge University Press, 2024). He has authored six other scholarly books, and has published articles in journals such as International Organization, International Studies Quarterly, Journal of Conflict Resolution, and International Security. Kang is a Non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. A regular consultant for U.S. government agencies and the military, Kang has also written opinion pieces in the New York Times, the Financial Times, the Washington Post, and the Los Angeles Times, and appears regularly in media such as CNN, PBC, the BBC, and NPR. A former Fulbright Scholar, Kang received an A.B. with honors from Stanford University and his Ph.D. from Berkeley.
Xinru Ma is an inaugural research scholar at the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab within the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, where she leads the research track on U.S.-Asia relations. Her work primarily examines nationalism, great power politics, and East Asian security, with a methodological focus on formal and computational methods. Her work is published in the Journal of East Asian Studies, The Washington Quarterly, Journal of Global Security Studies, Journal of European Public Policy, and edited volumes by Palgrave. Her co-authored book, Beyond Power Transition, is published by Columbia University Press.
Dr. Ferran Perez Mena Assistant professor in IR of East Asia in the School of Government and International Affairs.
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