Description
In his second term in office, US President Donald Trump has introduced revolutionary – if haphazard – changes in US foreign policy, in particular as relates to trade, relations with long-standing allies and relations with perceived ideological opponents and allies. This paper will explore Europe’s response to the Second Trump revolution, placing this analysis in the context of the range of strategic options open to Europe. The paper will examine different policy areas (in particular, trade, defence and political ideology) and assess the response of different European states and NATO and the EU to the Second Trump revolution. The paper will argue that, while existing international relations theories and strategic vocabulary (e.g., balancing, bandwagoning (including appeasement) and hedging) shed light on European response to the Second Trump revolution, they are too reductionist and limit our understanding of the dynamics at play. Although there are important divisions amongst European states, the paper will argue that European states have pursued a relatively coherent strategy towards the second Trump administration, key elements of which including buying time, standing strong on Ukraine, seeking to moderate US behaviour to the extent possible, building collective European strength and building ties with other like-minded partners. The strategy can be summed up as making the best of a bad world – the medium-term success or failure of the strategy remains to be, but it is sensible international politics in difficult circumstances.
