Description
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has created profound geopolitical disorder across Eurasia. For Kazakhstan, a state historically situated in Russia’s sphere of influence, the war has accelerated debates over sovereignty, strategic autonomy, and foreign policy orientation. This paper examines whether and to what extent Kazakhstan has attempted to recalibrate its international position by reducing reliance on Russia and nurturing closer ties with other powers, particularly China and the European Union.
The analysis traces Kazakhstan’s adaptive strategies in three interrelated domains. First, it considers diplomatic signaling, including Astana’s refusal to endorse Russia’s recognition of separatist entities, and its hosting of international dialogues positioning Kazakhstan as a neutral platform. Second, it explores economic realignments, from the search for alternative transit routes (the Trans-Caspian International Transport Corridor) to intensified energy and trade cooperation with China and the EU. Third, it investigates the constraints of adaptation, including Kazakhstan’s continued security dependence on Russia through the CSTO, the exposure of its export infrastructure to Russian routes, and the limits of Western engagement.
A particularly illustrative case is the nuclear power sector. Kazakhstan has announced plans to build two nuclear power plants: one in cooperation with Russia’s Rosatom and another with Chinese partners. At the same time, Kazakhstan remains the world’s largest uranium producer and a key supplier to the European Union’s energy market. This multi-vector nuclear strategy demonstrates how Astana uses the sector both to secure
modernization and energy transition goals, and to balance between Russian, Chinese, and European interests. The paper argues that Kazakhstan’s adaptation is best understood as strategic hedging rather than a full departure from Moscow’s orbit. By focusing on foreign policy responses, the study contributes to debates on small-state resilience and adaptation in Eurasia, underscoring both opportunities and constraints in navigating the erosion of traditional spheres of influence.
