Description
In an age where great power competition is becoming everyday more evident from economic coercion, hard power capacities and open opportunism, middle powers are gradually switching to more assertive strategies. The traditional reliance on multilateralism, niche diplomacy and good regional citizenship has turned into a rising protectionism, assertive entrepreneurialism and immediate gains. This article argues that among the rising strategies, transactionalism has become a pivotal approach adopted by middle powers that seek to enhance status through a riskier foreign policy behaviour. The paper theorises transactionalism as a foreign policy behaviour adopted by middle powers that seek to enhance their foreign policy autonomy by not relying on traditional alliances to pursue: short-term gains, a flexible regionalism, opportunism in security crises, bilateralism and nationalist status-seeking. Among the middle powers that have become ‘niche expert’ of such strategy, Turkey is a significant case study which offers useful insights in the recent management of security issues that affected NATO and Russia ranging from the Black Sea, passing through Southern Caucasus and Middle East. In particular, after the eruption of the Ukraine-Russia war and the instability that followed in the Middle East from February 2022 to October 2025, Turkey has navigated the Russian-NATO returning rivalry in a clear opportunistic way. This article assesses that Turkey’s transactionalism has made Ankara a regional power capable of obtaining security gains in the Black Sea and Middle East thanks to its geostrategic position, but such successes have produced short-lived expectations that question the actual validity of transactionalism.
