Description
The Black Sea has emerged as a critical battleground in the geopolitical and economic rivalry between the European Union (EU) and Russia. This paper conducts a comparative analysis of their competing economic strategies, focusing on energy, trade and political influence. While the EU promotes market integration, energy diversification and rule-of-law reforms, Russia relies on energy coercion, trade manipulation and hybrid economic tactics to maintain dominance. The study examines key policy instruments—such as the EU’s Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreements (DCFTAs) versus Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) pressure, and the EU’s Southern Gas Corridor versus Russia’s TurkStream pipeline—to assess their effectiveness in shaping regional dynamics. Case studies on Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia illustrate how these strategies play out in practice, from the EU’s post-war reconstruction efforts to Russia’s weaponization of energy and shadow trade.
The findings reveal a stark contrast: the EU’s long-term, rules-based approach fosters structural dependencies through institutional ties, while Russia’s short-term coercive tactics exploit vulnerabilities for political leverage. However, the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions have disrupted Russia’s traditional economic levers, forcing adaptation through sanctions evasion and third-country partnerships. Meanwhile, the EU faces challenges in balancing energy security with its normative governance agenda. The paper concludes by evaluating which strategy is gaining traction in the Black Sea and the implications for regional stability. By bridging geoeconomic theory and policy analysis, this research contributes to debates on how great powers compete in contested regions during times of polycrisis.
