Description
This paper examines the political risks and implications of maritime boundary disputes on the oil and gas industry in the Gulf of Guinea. Drawing on Douglas M. Johnston’s functionalist theory of boundary-making at oceans, the study contrasts cooperative approaches to security (positive security) with the realist paradigm’s emphasis on negative security. This study rethinks maritime boundary disputes in Africa through political risk analysis, presenting a new framework for understanding how territorial uncertainties shape investment, governance, and regional security in the offshore hydrocarbons sector. The key contribution is applying the concept of political risk to explore conflict—especially over maritime boundaries—and cooperation, such as joint development zones. This approach extends beyond traditional conflict analysis; rather than merely identifying the main actors, strategies, and scenarios, it focuses on how these disputes impede the development of the region’s oil and gas industry. Although the topic is thematic, it also questions whether current paradigms, methodologies, and concepts in political science (negative security, conflict analysis, anarchical system…) remain relevant and capable of addressing future challenges, or it’s time to integrate new concepts (political risk). Employing a qualitative methodology based primarily on secondary sources, the paper identifies three main political risks for the hydrocarbon sector: legal uncertainty over sovereign rights, weak protection of corporate interests (cases of Angola and Equatorial Guinea), and restricted access to offshore resources (case of DRC), compounded by maritime security challenges. Focusing on the Democratic Republic of Congo, Angola, Gabon, and Equatorial Guinea, the paper argues that political risk should not be understood solely as an investor concern but also as a method and concept in political science and international studies for examining the evolving relationship between sovereignty, resource governance, and regional stability.
Key words: political risk, energy, security, maritime boundaries, Gulf of Guinea, Africa
