Description
Unconstitutional changes of government continue to pose a significant threat to democracy and the rule of law in Africa. Yet, notable variation persists in how international actors respond to successful coups d’état on the continent. For example, the 2019 coup in Chad elicited no response from either the African Union or major international actors traditionally associated with the promotion of democracy, whereas coups in West Africa in the early 2020s generated a wide spectrum of reactions, ranging from support by Russia to condemnation and sanctions by the European Union. Although such variation is not unprecedented, the factors underlying these different responses of international actors remain inadequately understood. This study seeks to account for variations in international responses to successful coups in Africa between 1990 and 2023. Drawing on an original dataset, it advances two core arguments. First, it posits that the nature of economic and political relationships between the state experiencing a coup and international actors largely explains the observed variation in responses. These relationships capture the strategic and economic interests that international actors maintain in the affected state and, consequently, influence the scope and intensity of their reactions. Actors with substantial strategic or economic interests are more likely to adopt punitive responses to coups, as such events heighten uncertainty, disrupt political stability, and threaten established partnerships. Second, the study argues that the degree of commitment to democratic norms among international actors also shapes their responses. Because coups inherently undermine democratic governance, actors with a strong normative or institutional commitment to democracy are expected to respond more decisively and critically than those with weaker democratic orientations.
