Description
Climate change adaptation is reshaping the governance of shared water resources, with significant implications for regional and international order. In transboundary river basins, adaptation measures rarely stop at national borders: they interact with pre-existing hydro-political arrangements, altering power relations and potentially triggering both conflictive and cooperative dynamics. This study examines these dynamics through a multiscalar analysis of the Syr Darya River Basin in Central Asia, a region where climate pressures intersect with post-Soviet political fragmentation, energy–water interdependencies, and shifting regional relations. Drawing on literature on environmental peacebuilding, adaptation and resilience-building, and transboundary water governance, as well as qualitative insights from Kyrgyz stakeholders, the study explores how adaptation processes unfold across scales and how they reflect, challenge, or reproduce regional geopolitical hierarchies. The findings show that adaptation, conflict, and cooperation coexist as interlinked and evolving processes shaped by asymmetrical power relations and institutional constraints. Crucially, what constitutes adaptation at one scale may generate tensions or conflicts at another, underscoring the need to understand cross-scalar feedbacks in transboundary governance. The case highlights how climate adaptation is not merely a technical or environmental challenge but part of the broader processes through which international and regional orders are being reshaped. It argues for conflict-sensitive and cooperative approaches that acknowledge the multiscalar and political nature of adaptation in transboundary contexts.
