Description
Global efforts to accelerate energy transitions often presume that national governments can translate international climate commitments into effective domestic action. Yet in many resource-rich states, transitions are mediated through subnational politics and institutional fragmentation. This paper examines Nigeria’s uneven energy transition through the lens of state capacity and federal governance, asking how federal and state-level institutions shape the politics of reform and renewable energy adoption. Drawing on original data from Nigeria’s 36 states and interviews with policymakers and solar firms, the paper shows that the devolution of electricity regulation following the 2023 Electricity Act has amplified pre-existing disparities in administrative and fiscal capacity. States with diversified revenue bases and stronger institutional linkages to non-state actors are more likely to invest in solar power, while oil-producing states remain structurally locked into fossil-fuel dependence. The analysis advances debates in international political economy by showing how institutional complementarities at the subnational level mediate global climate governance outcomes. It argues that understanding the next phase of global energy governance requires moving beyond national averages and engaging seriously with the politics of institutional capacity in federal and resource-dependent systems.
