Description
Democratic transitions are notoriously fragile. It is well established that democratization often falters, especially in states emerging from authoritarian rule. What is less recognized, however, is that democratization and autocratization can unfold simultaneously—within the same regime, across different arenas of governance. This paper argues that treating these processes as distinct obscures the complex and often contradictory pressures faced by transitioning states. By examining Myanmar’s regime trajectory from 2008 to 2021, the paper explores how sudden regime change can occur within an ongoing transition, compounding the challenges of democratic consolidation. Drawing on Myanmar’s shift from military-backed civilian leadership (2008–2015) to a pro-democracy civilian government (2015–2021), it demonstrates how the very mechanisms of democratic progress can generate vulnerabilities that facilitate autocratic reversal. The 2021 coup d’état, far from being a simple rupture, is shown to be the culmination of unresolved tensions within the transitional process itself.
