Description
Why do armed actors protect civilians in some areas and target them in others? Existing research has shown that violence in civil wars is closely linked to territorial control, yet it often treats armed groups as unitary actors and overlooks variation within them. This project examines how changes in territorial control and governance practices shape strategies of violence and restraint by both rebel and state armed groups across different regions and over time. The study argues that civilian protection depends not only on whether an actor controls territory, but also on how it governs and interacts with local populations. Using spatially and temporally disaggregated data on territorial control, governance activities, and civilian targeting, the project analyzes variation within conflicts to uncover when and where civilians are most at risk or most protected. By integrating governance and temporal dynamics into the control–violence framework, this paper advances theoretical understanding of civilian protection in civil wars and provides practical insights for anticipating and mitigating civilian harm.
