Description
Does populism influence leaders to take foreign policy risks? The existing literature on populism has successfully outlined the domestic implications of populist government formation, but theory-driven analyses of populism’s international impact, particularly in shaping foreign policy change, are still scarce. Specifically, IR scholarship is still coming to terms with how and why populist leaders make foreign policy decisions, as well as the external conditions conducive to policy changes. This paper looks to explore these questions by way of an in-depth case study of Turkey’s changing policy to Syria (2011-2013). Utilising a framework that combines Prospect Theory with the politico-strategic approach to populism, this paper applies a qualitative frame analysis methodology to evaluate Prime Minister Erdogan’s assessments of the impact of the 2011 Arab Uprisings on Turkey’s position in the Middle East, and whether changes to this framing predisposed Erdogan and his ministers to abandon relations with Syria’s Assad regime in favour of the opposition. In doing so, this paper will contribute to the growing research agenda on populist foreign policy, through demonstrating how populism’s uninstitutionalised decision-making process and reliance on continued mass-mobilisation through confronting threats to ‘the people’ render certain policy choices more likely.
