Description
The resurgence of great power rivalry has redefined the dynamics of global governance, technological cooperation, and strategic competition. The space sector, once dominated by multilateral cooperation and civilian objectives, has become an increasingly contested domain, where technological leadership, dual-use innovation, and control over orbital infrastructure serve as instruments of geopolitical influence. For emerging powers such as Brazil, this shifting landscape presents both opportunities and constraints for achieving strategic autonomy.
This paper examines how the renewed competition among major powers — particularly between the United States and China — affects Brazil’s capacity to pursue independent development in the space sector. The analysis considers Brazil’s historical trajectory in space cooperation, including its partnerships through the National Institute for Space Research (INPE), regional initiatives, and bilateral projects with diverse partners. It highlights the tension between maintaining technological access and avoiding dependency amid the politicization of supply chains, export controls, and emerging standards for space governance.
Drawing on the concept of autonomy as relational and multidimensional (encompassing technological, industrial, and diplomatic dimensions) the study assesses Brazil’s strategic position within the evolving global space order. It argues that great power rivalry pressures middle powers to balance openness and self-reliance, potentially constraining their policy space while stimulating domestic innovation and regional cooperation.
By mapping the intersections between geopolitical competition and national technological strategies, the paper contributes to broader debates on autonomy, multipolarity, and governance of global commons. It concludes by reflecting on possible future scenarios for Brazil’s role in the space domain, emphasizing foresight as a key tool for navigating uncertainty and preserving strategic autonomy.
