Description
Global protest waves continue to challenge authoritarian and hybrid regimes, yet the conditions driving mobilization under repression remain unclear. Existing research often isolates political repression or economic hardship, but rarely compares their relative and combined effects. This study develops a cross-national model of protest behavior that examines how regime type and economic conditions jointly shape willingness to protest. Drawing on a large-scale survey experiment (target N = 18,000) currently being fielded in Morocco, Egypt, Tunisia, Iraq, Lebanon, and Jordan, we systematically vary regime type (hybrid vs. authoritarian) and economic context (prosperity, mild hardship, crisis) to identify causal effects on protest potential. We argue that it is the interaction of political and economic contexts—not either alone—that explains mobilization: economic crises heighten readiness to protest even under hard authoritarianism, whereas hybrid regimes facing mild hardship may dampen incentives. By comparing political and economic conditions across diverse authoritarian contexts, the study advances debates on authoritarian resilience, contentious politics, and the structural drivers of citizen protest.
