Description
This paper examines whether emotions or rational calculations more strongly mediate the effects of regime type and economic conditions on individuals’ willingness to protest. A large-scale survey experiment (target N = 18,000) is being conducted in Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia. The design systematically varies regime type (hybrid vs. fully authoritarian) and economic context (prosperity, mild hardship, crisis), generating seven distinct scenarios. Respondents’ emotional reactions and rational assessments of costs and benefits are measured after exposure to these treatments. Following each scenario, protest willingness is assessed multiple times: first immediately, then after reporting emotional experiences, and again after evaluating cost–benefit considerations. To avoid order effects, the sequence of the emotion and rational-choice modules is randomized. We expect emotional responses to exert greater influence under severe economic crises, regardless of regime type, whereas rational calculations will predominate in hybrid regimes facing moderate hardship where political openings are perceived. By identifying the dominant mediational pathway across contexts, the study contributes to debates on mobilization, authoritarian resilience, and the psychology of contentious politics
