2–5 Jun 2026
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Foxes and Hedgehogs in Human-Machine Decision-Making at the Brink: The Implications of AI Decision Support Systems for Nuclear Deterrence

4 Jun 2026, 09:00

Description

This article examines how artificial intelligence decision support systems (AI-DSS) may disrupt nuclear crisis decision-making by reshaping the interaction between human cognition and machine reasoning. As nuclear-armed states integrate AI into nuclear command, control, and communications (NC3) systems, long-standing assumptions about deterrence—credibility, ambiguity, and signaling—face unprecedented challenges. By bridging deterrence theory, emerging technologies, and strategic culture, it offers a novel framework for assessing how AI reshapes escalation dynamics and crisis outcomes. The article argues that the strategic impact of AI depends less on its technical capabilities than on how human decision-makers interpret, adapt to, or resist machine outputs. Using the fox-hedgehog cognitive heuristic, the article explores how divergent thinking styles shape human–machine interaction, highlighting the psychological, institutional, and cultural filters through which AI recommendations are processed in high-stakes settings.

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