Description
The emergence of Hybrid Warfare as a strategic instrument of great power rivalry has ignited a debate regarding the everlasting relevance of Carl von Clausewitz's core insights in the 21st century.
While leading scholars argue that the nature of warfare has fundamentally changed, this paper aims to analyze the enduring relevance and applicability of Clausewitz's Trinity- comprising Passion, Chance, and Reason. It argues that Hybrid Warfare can be best understood as a change in the character of conflict, which is attributed to technologically driven shifts that exploit three paradoxical Aspects of Clausewitz's framework.
Through Theoretical -empirical analysis, this study operationalizes the Trinity to reveal the core mechanisms of great power hybrid strategy. The methodology employs a focused case study of Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea. The analysis demonstrates that hybrid tactics—such as disinformation, cyber operations, and covert activities—are utilized as a means to strategically weaponize Passion (the populace) through ethnic appeals; maximize the element of Chance (the military) via deniable operations that amplify friction and ambiguity; and exploit Reason (the government) by forcing delayed, incoherent policy responses in the grey zone.
The paper asserts the continued relevance of the Clausewitzian framework, deducing that Hybrid Warfare as an instrument of state power is consistent with the trinity framework. It instead uses the inherent dynamics of paradoxical Trinity as a blueprint for achieving political ends in this interconnected world. The findings offer insights for policymakers on the necessity of adopting a holistic approach towards integrating resilience and developing counter-hybrid strategies, which increasingly occur in the grey zone.
