Description
What causes insurgent groups to experience organizational evolution over time? How do these structural changes complicate attempts to disarm these groups by force or diplomacy? Drawing on Neo-Darwinian theory, this article finds that counterinsurgent pressure adheres to the logic of natural selection insofar as it is a major cause for insurgent organizational change during civil wars. When counterinsurgents deploy force against insurgents, the latter’s existing weaknesses are exposed, compelling insurgent commanders to respond and adapt to these selection pressures and address their organizational shortcomings lest they wish to experience defeat. Beyond driving adaptive responses, selection pressures exacerbate pre-existing internal balances of power between those subnational insurgent factions capable of resisting and adapting to counterinsurgent force, and those which struggle to do so. While resilient factions provide successful models of adaptive responses for other less resilient factions to replicate, those factions which do not adopt these effective models of strategic behaviour are more prone to secession and demobilization through force or negotiated settlements. Additionally, this analysis finds that this diffusion of successful practices and ideas between subnational factions also shapes the future trajectory of the larger organization in strategic and military terms, while simultaneously shaping in-group preferences for continued mobilization or demobilization. Finally, it finds that resilient rebel factions are often aided by beneficial mutualistic relationships with vital out-group allies which strengthens their capacity to resist selection pressures. These findings are based on a longitudinal case study analysis of the Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN) insurgency between 1964 and the present that draws on a selection of semi-structured interviews with former ELN members, participants in past peace dialogues, community leaders in ELN controlled regions, Colombian security analysts and journalists.
