Description
Amid global concerns about the resilience and legitimacy of authoritarian rule, this paper investigates why some personalist authoritarian leaders survive longer than others. In rethinking dominant structural approaches to authoritarian survival, I argue that the leadership skill of personalist dictators is a critical yet underexplored explanatory variable. Drawing from political theory, comparative politics, international relations, political psychology, and business literature, I develop a framework that foregrounds leadership agency within regime durability. Specifically, I define skill through four traits – charisma, acumen, intimidation, and appeasement – and contend that these traits enable leaders to navigate institutional, political, and external challenges. I test this framework by analyzing Muammar Qaddafi’s rule in Libya, decade by decade from 1969 to 2011. Using qualitative content analysis and process tracing of unclassified archival documents from the British Foreign Office, CIA, and Library of Congress, as well as interviews I conducted with individuals who interacted with Qaddafi, I assess shifting perceptions of his leadership over time. To strengthen the generalizability of the theory, I also apply the framework to the leadership trajectories of Bashar al-Assad, Suharto, and Idi Amin.