Description
This paper examines how Donald Trump’s second presidential term has reshaped patterns of conflict and cooperation in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) amid the ongoing war in Ukraine and wider transformations in the international order. Focusing on developments since January 2025, the paper analyzes shifts in U.S. security commitments, NATO relations, military assistance, and diplomatic engagement with both EU and non-EU states in the region.
The study argues that Trump’s renewed emphasis on transactional alliance politics and selective security commitments has intensified strategic uncertainty across CEE, producing divergent regional responses. While some states have sought deeper bilateral ties with Washington and increased defense cooperation, others have accelerated efforts toward European strategic autonomy or adopted more ambiguous positions toward Russia.
Using policy analysis, official statements, and regional political discourse, the paper explores how changing U.S. priorities are reshaping transatlantic relations and the balance between conflict management and regional cooperation. More broadly, the paper contributes to debates on alliance credibility, geopolitical fragmentation, and the future of the Euro-Atlantic security order in a rapidly changing world.