Description
As traditional institutions falter and geopolitical competition intensifies, the capacity to assess and communicate political risk has become indispensable — yet existing frameworks remain largely shaped by and for great powers. This paper addresses that gap by presenting a novel methodology of risk assessment, designed to deliver a structured weekly global risk report produced by researchers at the Center for Global Studies (CEG/UnB). The paper proposes a replicable methodology combining Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) data collection with a qualitative framework grounded in hypothesis-testing and fuzzy-set logic. Through this lens, diffuse international signals are transformed into country-specific actionable assessments of externally-originated political risks. To demonstrate the methodology empirically, the paper traces the Hormuz Strait crisis and reconstructs how its global dynamics produced measurable risk exposure within the Brazilian context — illustrating both the conflict-cooperation tensions inherent in energy corridor disputes and their asymmetric consequences for peripheral actors. Drawing on risk analysis theory and a qualitative single-case study design, this research advances a policy-oriented, replicable model for political risk reporting adaptable to other middle powers navigating an increasingly volatile international order.