Description
The War in Ukraine occurred as Ukraine shifted its foreign policies from hedging to balancing from 2014. Through observing this War, what foreign policy lessons have Southeast Asian states, given their similarity to Ukraine as smaller powers in a region where Great Powers compete, drawn?
To address this question, this article first classifies the existing literature about the causes of the War into three categories (Russia as an insecure Power, a greedy Power, or an insecure and greedy Power) and delineates four potential lessons deriving from these interpretations: (1) the Danger of External Balancing (corresponding to the view that Russia was insecure), (2) the Importance of Balancing (corresponding to the view that Russia was greedy), (3, 4) the Vulnerability before External Balancing is Achieved, and the Necessity of Balancing without Threatening the Adversary (corresponding to the view that Russia was simultaneously insecure and greedy). Then, as a first step to study lessons learned by Southeast Asian states, this article examines the discussions in Vietnam. It finds that, although the Danger of External Balancing is typically considered the most relevant lesson, the importance of internal balancing, which addresses the Necessity of Balancing without Threatening the Adversary, is also emphasized by some.