Description
This presentation consists in a critical investigation of the June 20, 2019 shooting of a United States Navy BAMS-D surveillance drone by Iranian armed forces over the Strait of Hormuz, and its implications for the strategic theorisation of drone usage. This incident presented the most high-profile military crisis revolving around a drone, and as such provides an excellent opportunity to test existing theories concerning the impact of drone usage on dynamics of escalation. According to multiple contemporaneous news accounts, the absence of an onboard pilot significantly impacted both the Iranian decision to shoot down the drone and the American decision to avoid military retaliation. This presentation, as such, will begin by reconstructing the sequence of events and the decisions made by both parties from available open source documents and accounts. I will then analyse this account to explore the changes in escalation dynamics and the strategic thought of both parties, concentrating on the Iranian decision to select a remote-piloted aircraft as target, and President Trump's ultimate decision to not retaliate militarily. Through this analysis, I expect to provide a preliminary empirical test of theories concerning the impact of drones on escalation and avenues for further theorising.
