Description
On February 14, 2019, the Pakistan-backed terrorist group, Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM) carried out a suicide attack on a convoy carrying 40 soldiers belonging to the Indian paramilitary force, the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) in the town of Pulwama, in Jammu and Kashmir state (now a union territory). Then, on February 26, the Indian Air Force launched a strike on a suspected JeM facility in Balakot, Pakistan. Subsequently, on February 27, the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) dispatched several fighter aircraft, including F-16s, to launch a reprisal raid on Indian territory, which then led to a skirmish between fighter jets of the two countries and the downing of an Indian MiG-21 and its pilot on Pakistani soil; the pilot being released back to India.
This was the most severe crisis between the two countries since the November 2008 Mumbai attack by the jihadist terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba, also backed by Pakistan. Underlining the seriousness further was that it was the first time since the December 1971 war between the two countries that their air forces crossed the border to attack. The central question of the paper is: what sparked the February 2019 India-Pakistan crisis? It examines the role of Jaish-e-Muhammad, and the rationale for the attack in Pulwama. The paper also examines the decision-making by India and Pakistan before and during the crisis. What led to the Indian government carrying out the Balakot air strike? Important questions also include whether the crisis demonstrates a paradigm shift in the India-Pakistan dyad, and the implications of the crisis on conventional military and nuclear weapons policies and postures in New Delhi and Islamabad. Finally, the paper also examines the role of external actors during the crisis, including the United States, China, Russia, Israel, while also considering the possibilities for conflict resolution.
