Description
A huge volume of theories trying to analyse how foreign policies is made. However, the dominant theories face substantial criticisms for a. unrealistic assumptions b. poor link between objective and subjective factors c. lack a systematic, scientific, robust framework.
This ambitious paper aims to proposes a new model for policy making and analysis, creating an overarching framework that could alleviate the above criticisms.
The new foreign policy decision-making (FPDM) framework is in nature an economic model. With the central assumptions of procedural rationality and substantial irrationality, the research highlights the discrepancy between rational state goal of utility maximization and the inability to achieve such goal due to imperfect information and bounded rationality. The research presents two versions of the new framework. The ideal version illustrates the philosophy behind the design of the current political systems, justifying how the systems can in theory mitigate the discrepancy. Then the paper breaks the unrealistic assumptions and introduce several intervening variables. The modified version of the framework better fits the political reality and exposes the weak points which leads to undesirable foreign policy outcome. The paper then compare the two versions of the model, analysing the nature of the weak points and whether they are resolvable.
The new framework has many strengths. In terms of validity, it holds minimum normative assumptions, with the support of both robust economic formulas and calculation and case studies of historical foreign policy decisions. The existing micro/macro IR theories fits well at various kinks of the framework. In term of applications, other than providing an overarching structure for FPMD analysis, it highlights the importance of a capable decision-maker; justify bureaucratic interest orientation of ministries & intra-agency competitions; explain crisis decision making. Additionally, it poses challenges to the existing UK bureaucratic system and provides direction & potential ideas on political system reforms and restructuring.
