Description
Despite strong interest from the UK and the EU in securing arrangements for continued security and defence collaboration, the culmination of the formal Brexit process has seen no such agreement reached. Moreover, both sides have doubled down on their respective visions of a more autonomous posture in world politics post-Brexit. This article adopts a historical institutionalist approach to explain how both sides moved from accommodation to disinterest over the period, showing how a series of significant junctures during the Brexit negotiations contributed to path dependent processes of reciprocal (negative) interaction, hardening preferences and declining trust. A focus on critical junctures and path dependence also helps assess the prospects for future re-engagement by highlighting when trends become locked-in and when they are subject to change. While re-institutionalisation of the security relationship is unlikely, political change may yet bring about re-engagement alongside moves towards re-Europeanisation and diminishing Atlanticism.
