Description
This article attempts to assess the utility of (neo-)realist and liberal theories in explaining the evolution of the foreign policy of China for the past decades. This article identities a long-term pattern of swing in China’s foreign policy posture since the late 1950s and tries to assess the realist and liberal explanations. This pattern can be depicted as a U-shape curve of change between assertiveness and peacefulness over the time. Specifically, China’s foreign policy switched from a very assertive and even hawkish stance under Mao when China was weak and in isolation, to largely pacific under Deng and his two successors, i.e., Jiang and Hu, and back to assertive and abrasive under Xi when China is rising as a superpower. The author reviews the realist explanation of state behaviour based largely on the state capacity as well as the liberal one that emphasises interdependence and global membership of the nation-states. He concludes that neither can offer a consistent and satisfactory explanation of this pattern. He proposes an alternative explanation that emphasises the domestic sources. The author also elaborates on this innenpolitik theory by investigating the political and economic regimes embraced by the top Chinese leader, the leader’s vision, ideology, and leadership style, and the utility of foreign policy postures for power consolidation and vision fulfilment of the top leader. He argues that China’s external conduct should be understood as first and foremost aiming to serve the fundamental interests of the political and economic regime on which the top leader’s authority is based and that the observed pacific or assertive postures are instruments to build popular and political support for the regime and the top leader.
Key words: China’s foreign policy, realism, liberalism, domestic politics, political economy, assertive, strategic posture, power, interdependence
