Description
Cross-Taiwan Strait (in)stability is a global and complex issue. The region’s entanglement with the world economy portends significant global consequences in the event of conflict. Additionally, it stands as the main flashpoint for a direct confrontation between the world’s two leading powers. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is thoroughly committed to a (re)unification with the Republic of China (ROC). The PRC’s ascension to global prominence, increasing foreign policy assertiveness, and modernised armed forces fuel concerns about an imminent invasion. The United States of America's (US) regional policy of strategic ambiguity has effectively deterred outright conflict for decades. The resulting status quo has promoted a multinational network of interdependencies. Nevertheless, the recent pivot in US foreign policy towards containing China's rise intensifies the risk of escalating tensions.
This article examines the influence of US foreign policy on cross-Strait stability by mapping and characterising the international network of regional relations. Theoretically, the study delves into the intricate dynamics of the cross-Strait status quo, employing a Neoclassical Realism framework enhanced by the main concepts of Complexity Theory: non-linearity, feedback, emergence, and self-organisation. The findings provide insights into policy-making aimed at fostering stability in politically sensitive regions.
